讲座题目：Rate-induced tipping in a lake eutrophication model coupled with human activities

主 讲 人：原三领 教授（上海理工大学）

讲座时间：2026年4月28日（周二）上午11:00

讲座地点： 钱伟长楼201会议室

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数学与数据科学学院

2026年4月26日

讲座内容简介：

Human activities can influence the state of ecosystems, and the consequent variation in ecosystem services in turn affects people's perceptions and behaviors, thus forming a feedback loop. In this paper, a novel coupled human-environment model is proposed and analyzed. The model employs a replicator dynamics equation to describe the human behavioral decision-making process and couples it to an ecological subsystem representing lake eutrophication. Analysis of the model shows that it has richer dynamical behaviors, including multistability and sustained periodic oscillations. Interestingly, for the scenario when the model possesses tristability, we find that increasing the cost of conservation too quickly can trigger rate-induced tipping, causing the system to switch between oligotrophic (or eutrophic) and intermediate steady states. Furthermore, there is a threshold for the rate of change in the cost of conservation below which the probability of tipping from an oligotrophic state to an intermediate nutrient state is always greater than that of switching from an intermediate nutrient state to a eutrophic state. Above this threshold, however, the probability of tipping from the intermediate state to the eutrophic state prevails. Our results suggest that limiting only the magnitude of lake conservation costs is not sufficient to control lake deterioration and that the rate of increase in conservation costs should also be considered.

主讲人简介：

原三领，上海理工大学教授，博士生导师，中国数学会生物数学专业委员会副主任。研究方向为微分方程与动力系统、生物数学。曾先后主持多项国家自然科学基金面上项目和上海市项目的研究工作。研究内容涉及微分方程与动力系统、种群动力学、流行病动力学、海洋生态学以及生物化学工程等诸多领域，具有多学科交叉特点。曾多次受邀到国内和国际多所高校进行合作研究和学术交流，在SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics、Journal of Mathematical-Biology、Journal of Differential-Equations等国内外重要学术刊物上发表SCI论文150余篇。